BLUF: Interests in East Texas should stay weather aware and in touch with the local weather offices to get advanced warning of possible severe storm activity Tue 12/13:
The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has been tracking a weather threat for Tuesday of next week - and it has moved from 15% to 30% risk in some parts of East Texas and Louisiana. SPC is usually conservative, but what is clear is we have several elements similar to what spawned [Disaster Relief] DR 012-23 AL-MS 11/22 TOR Just 10 days ago.
* PW Precipitable Water: Tons of gulf Moisture in the air.
* CAPE - Plenty of predicted energy in the atmosphere
* Shear - Plenty of predicted shear needed for Thunderstorms
* Front - Approaching CA now and headed our way
These are all the right elements for a weather bomb. It just needs the fuse to be lit.
Due to the proximity of the weekend I elected to send this note out.
Below Richard KE5MIM forecast and report. Worth watching for detail, and his explanations of 15% and 30%.
*Please watch today's TexLa Weather Update https://youtu.be/zRgoBwpVabc <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRgoBwpVabc>\.\*
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